Benefit of British firms swells by £50bn on election outcome

Pound enjoys best one-day rise since October 2011 as FTSE 250 hits an all-time high

Investors cheered the emphatic and unexpected victory of the Conservatives by pouring money into the stock market, spurring a rally that resulted in the value of British companies swelling by more than £50bn.

The benchmark FTSE 100 index of leading shares leapt 159.87 points to 7,046.82, a 2.3pc surge of that was its biggest one-day jump since January. The second-tier FTSE 250, which has much greater exposure to the UK economy than the internationally-focused FTSE 100, climbed 487.97, or 2.8pc, to an all-time high of 17,935.93, recording its best day for three and a half years.

In total, the rally resulted in £51.3bn being added to the value of companies listed in the broader FTSE All-Share index amid relief the uncertainty of a hung parliament had been averted.

Sterling advanced 1.6pc to 72.74p per euro, its biggest daily advance since October 2011. It was boosted by expectations that the Tory majority would provide a stable government. It surged as much as 2pc against the dollar in early morning trade to hit $ 1.5523, which marked its highest level since February.

The Tory win was also felt in the gilt market, where yields on 10-year government bonds, which move inversely to prices, fell as low as 1.74pc as investors anticipated a continuation of the deficit-reduction policies that were pursued by the coalition.

In the stock market, shares in companies that would have been penalised by a Labour-led government spearheaded the rally. Energy suppliers Centrica and SSE gained after the threat of energy freezes was lifted. Housebuilder and estate agency stocks, which had been rattled by the prospect of rent controls and the manision tax, also enjoyed strong rises.

Similarly, banks, transport companies, bookmakers and outsourcing firms – which were all expected to be hit by Labour policies – rallied hard as the risks posed by the election were washed away by the Tory majority.

“There were a number of sectors which had pretty dangerous scenarios being priced-in,” said Alastair Gunn, a fund manager at Jupiter Asset Management. The rally shows that “we didn’t trust Labour”. However, despite the relief, investors cautioned that a Tory government would herald uncertainty over the longer-term.

“There are now some big political issues to overcome,” said Simon Brazier, a fund manager at Investec Asset Management. “One is Scotland and devolution more broadly, and the other is the EU referendum.”

Election 2015 market and business reaction: as it happened

15.47

The clear – and perhaps surprising – majority win for the Tories means they won’t be able to hide behind a coalition government when it comes to delivering what businesses want. Ufi Ibrahim, chief executive of the British Hospitality Association, said: “The threat of having no clear winner in the general election was just as bad as the wrong result for business and consumers. Now the coalition veil has been lifted there is no room for excuses. The hospitality and tourism industry expect the new Conservative Government to start delivering from day one.”

“Our top agenda item for the Prime Minister and the Chancellor is to cut tourism VAT to 5% which would massively boost jobs, bring billions of new revenue to the Treasury and directly improve the livelihoods of people in struggling communities across the UK. Let’s hope consumers are the winners in the final result and can look forward to the benefits of an increasingly healthy economy.”

The UK’s controversial Air Passenger Duty, which can add up to £71 to the price of a flight in economy class, makes it one of the least cost competitive countries in the world for tourists .

The UK’s tourism sector is worth $ 90.3bn, or 3.5pc of GDP, and responsible for 5.5pc of the country’s jobs.

14.48

There is just one constituency (St Ives, in the now very blue looking Cornwall) left to declare, but the Tories already have 330 seats, safely past the majority threshold of 326.

Here’s John Ficenec with the shares that will benefit most from a Convervative government .

14.16

Here’s a chart, courtesy of James Titcomb, showing the happy morning that bank shares have had.

Bank shares leapt on Friday

Date Lloyds RBS Barclays 5/7/15 12:00 99.7202 99.1855 99.3927 5/7/15 12:10 100.0608 99.1855 99.4737 5/7/15 12:20 99.8905 99.1855 99.4332 5/7/15 12:30 99.9513 99.3665 99.4534 5/7/15 12:40 100.1095 99.6078 99.5749 5/7/15 12:50 100.146 99.6983 99.7166 5/7/15 13:00 100.2311 99.638 99.9595 5/7/15 13:10 100.5231 100.1207 100.4656 5/7/15 13:20 100.4744 100.0905 100.3846 5/7/15 13:30 100.4501 100.2413 100.587 5/7/15 13:40 100.3285 100.1508 100.587 5/7/15 13:50 100.2676 100.0603 100.3036 5/7/15 14:00 100.1703 100.1207 100.3441 5/7/15 14:10 100.292 100.1508 100.2632 5/7/15 14:20 100.2798 99.9698 100.1215 5/7/15 14:30 100.1703 99.7587 99.9595 5/7/15 14:40 100.146 99.9095 100 5/7/15 14:50 99.8054 99.3363 99.6559 5/7/15 15:00 99.9635 99.4268 99.7571 5/7/15 15:10 99.927 99.457 99.7368 5/7/15 15:20 99.7445 99.095 99.4534 5/7/15 15:30 99.8054 99.1855 99.8988 5/7/15 15:40 99.8662 99.3967 100 5/7/15 15:50 100.0122 99.6682 100.2429 5/7/15 16:00 99.9635 99.9095 100.4858 5/7/15 16:10 100.2676 100.2715 101.0729 5/7/15 16:20 100.1095 100.362 100.9919 5/7/15 16:30 99.9148 100.181 100.7692 5/8/15 8:00 106.618 106.003 105.2834 5/8/15 8:10 106.9951 106.184 105 5/8/15 8:20 106.9343 105.7617 105.4251 5/8/15 8:30 106.3747 105.5204 104.5951 5/8/15 8:40 106.3625 105.7014 104.8381 5/8/15 8:50 106.2895 105.098 104.6761 5/8/15 9:00 105.9732 104.8567 104.3927 5/8/15 9:10 105.3893 104.7662 104.2308 5/8/15 9:20 105.4988 104.7662 104.9393 5/8/15 9:30 105.8759 105.0377 104.8988 5/8/15 9:40 105.9246 104.8567 104.5951 5/8/15 9:50 105.8394 104.7964 104.4332 5/8/15 10:00 105.8273 104.8869 104.5344 5/8/15 10:10 105.9003 104.7662 104.5749 5/8/15 10:20 105.9367 105.279 104.6964 5/8/15 10:30 105.9124 105.2187 104.7773 5/8/15 10:40 105.9858 105.3092 104.7975

It’s good news for taxpayers, who still own 80pc of RBS and around a fifth of Lloyds.

And here’s why banks enjoyed such a strong rally after the election: Five reasons banks are breathing a huge sigh of relief at a Tory victory .

13.39

“For the city: a result beyond its wildest dreams!” says David Buik, a market commentator at Panmure Gordon. He outlines four major reasons why this “political miracle transpired”: Scottish nationalist angst, Lib Dems’ willingness to put country before party, the “don’t knows” not buying into Ed Miliband, and boring old strong messaging from the Tories.

Labour’s left of centre agenda with the SNP frightened our allies, business, industry and commerce and sadly the two ‘Eds’ did not understand the idea that if you incentivise business, companies and employees pay more tax, which allows the country to service the public sector a la NHS – very simple philosophy but it fell on deaf ears!

Mr Buik touches on what we’ve been following here today, and maybe this is a good time to sum up what’s been happening in the markets. In his words:

The City, business, industry and commerce have had a right royal result. Sentiment remains positive. Confidence in the markets has returned in spades. Overnight Sterling rallied by 2%. Pressure on gilts evaporated. Though the FTSE 100 is driven by international issues rather than parochial political problems, today’s initial sharp upward movement was a relief rally and there may be not that much momentum behind it. Now that the threat of ‘mili-bashing’ has disappeared the following sectors rallied like a grilse – Insurance (Aviva +1.6%), Bookmakers (Ladbrokes +9%), estate agents – Foxtons (+7%), utilities – Centrica +7% and SSE +5%. At 2.30pm the FTSE 100 had added 125 points to 7012. The FTSE 250 was up 4%, but has settled up 2.5%.

13.09

So what’s the verdict: good news? Bad news? Moody’s analysts takes a look at what the election results — the Conservatives now have 327 seats, above the 326 majority — mean for UK plc.

Good for energy. Graham Taylor says: “The Conservative win is credit positive for energy suppliers, as Labour had proposed significant interventions including pressing the regulator to force price reductions.”

Bad for banks? Carlos Suarez Duarte says: “The Conservatives have pledged to increase competition and help new entrants join the market and to use the British Business Bank to boost investment and lending to small and medium-sized enterprises. Increased competition in the corporate lending market would be credit negative for banks with the largest market shares (Lloyds, Barclays, RBS, HSBC and Santander UK) as they potentially lose pricing power.”

Overall verdict: Marie Diron says: “If implemented, policies proposed by the Conservatives may create risks for renewable energy developers, banks, life insurers and Housing Associations. The election result reduces risks for energy retailers and bus and rail operators.”

12.25

Ed Miliband has just stepped down as head of the Labour party, leaving Harriet Harman to keep things in order until a new leader is elected. But there’s no real surprise there after footballer Joey Barton deliver his verdict this morning.

Miliband has to go. Labour need to get their act together. Did anybody seriously think he’d get elected. The guy is a dope.

— Joseph Barton (@Joey7Barton) May 8, 2015

The resignation speech seems to have been received well elsewhere on Twitter.

Not a huge fan of @Ed_Miliband policies… But that was a brilliant speech…

— Michael Vaughan (@MichaelVaughan) May 8, 2015

Very good speech by Miliband. Message to party was: please get on with it and don’t split.

— Isabel Hardman (@IsabelHardman) May 8, 2015

Miliband showing real class.

— Janan Ganesh (@JananGanesh) May 8, 2015

There are tears in the audience as Miliband says “we have come back before and we will come back again”

— Jess Brammar (@jessbrammar) May 8, 2015

Here’s a look back on the career of Ed Miliband , from backstabbing geek to lathario… then loser.

11.54

The British Chambers of Commerce has spoken and issued congratulations to DC and his party.

“Businesses in all parts of the United Kingdom want to see a pro-growth, pro-enterprise programme – building on the positive steps taken, and lessons learned, during the Coalition years. The Conservatives now have a clear mandate to take bold and important decisions, and must use it to help British businesses invest and grow. In return, business stands ready to work with the new government to deliver prosperity, jobs and sustained economic growth.”

11.19

This is “a spectacular victory” for David Cameron’s party, says Saxo Bank chief executive Lars Seier Christensen.

“Labour has been appropriately punished, even humiliated for the lack of a coherent economic policy and the wipe out in Scotland is plain embarrassing.

“It is great to see that some voters in Europe recognize leadership that addresses economic prudence and I believe that Mr Cameron deserves his victory. His containment strategy towards UKIP has worked very well, but he now needs to heed to the message that the British public expects an in/out referendum on Europe.”

The Danish bank boss sees the UK’s election outcome as “our one chance to say stop” to bureaucracy in Brussels.

10.47

As Thanet South, Nigel Farage’s would-be constituency, goes to Tory candidate Craig Mackinlay, leaving Mr Cameron’s party just four seats short of the majority 326, the Telegraph’s banks reporter James Titcomb has a gander through lenders’ reactions to the election result.

Big relief rally among the banks this morning: Lloyds is up 6pc to a new post-bailout record, and Royal Bank of Scotland climbing 5pc, followed by a 3.6pc jump at Barclays.

This isn’t surprising given the result – Ed Miliband had outlined plans to potentially break up some of the bigger banks, increase the bank levy further, and Labour also wanted to introduce a 50pc tax on high bonuses.

There are still lots of questions to be answered, though. The SNP’s whitewash in Scotland could lead to more devolution – potentially bad news for Edinburgh-based RBS and Lloyds, which, remember, said they were moving south if Scotland voted for independence. The European Union referendum is also going to be a worry as it comes closer.

On the whole though, this is a result that’s going to please the banks. There’s a nice boost for the taxpayer as well – our stakes in Lloyds and RBS are worth a combined £2.1bn extra this morning after those share price rises.

Notably, despite the broad relief across the sector, there are more muted market reactions for Standard Chartered and HSBC, which are both considering a UK exit. Suggests shareholders think they’re off to Asia despite the election result?

10.25

Now that the gruelling election campaigns are finally over, the party leaders could probably use a few days off. Telegraph Travel has the scoop on their relaxation destinations .

10.03

This is the word on the trading floor, courtesy of the Telegraph’s Marion Dakers.

There was a tinge of deflation on the trading desks at Peel Hunt this morning, as the expected volatility that would come with an unclear election result was replaced by a relief rally, with the FTSE 100 up over 100 points in the first minutes of trading.

One trader executing orders for fund management clients said it was “one-way traffic” as almost all the blue-chip stocks gained ground, reversing declines from earlier in the week.

Steven Fine, managing partner at Peel Hunt, told the floor that today was “a good opportunity to tap into the client confidence out there”, with early orders for shares in Centrica, Berkeley and Betfair as the fear of regulatory changes or policy swerves evaporated.

“Absent the EU referendum, we’ve now got five years of stability and businesses can start to plan, how to invest, where to expand,” he said. “For the rest of the day, there’s a risk of being caught short in positions, but it’s a great day to be in here.”

I should probably apologise to the trader overseeing property stocks, who I asked about his trading book that morning, but who only had time to tell me it was “mental”.

09.45

From our Assistant Editor Jeremy Warner, who’s sad to see Labour’s bruiser go but not so enamoured with the pollsters

Genuinely sorry to see @edballsmp go. A political bruiser and though I didn’t agree with his economics, a real intellect

— jeremy warner (@JeremyWarnerUK) May 8, 2015

And polling claims to be so much more scientific since disastrous reading of the 1992 election. Another shocking indictment of the industry

— jeremy warner (@JeremyWarnerUK) May 8, 2015

09.25

Why we don’t need to fear a Brexit

Courtesy of Credit Suisse – support for the EU has been steadily rising over the last year

09.12

Jeremy Cook at World First is a wise man

Right i’m going home. It’ll be 30hrs awake by the time I get there

— World First (@World_First) May 8, 2015

09.10

Cameron needs an EU referendum – fast

Terry Scuoler, chief executive of manufacturers’ organisation EEF sums up many of the fears among British business this morning. In order to capitalise on a positive domestic economic climate and a reasonably tolerant attitude towards the EU right now, Mr Swift thinks David Cameron needs to call a referendum, sooner rather than later.

Here he is in full:

The biggest threat to our long-term economic well-being, however, remains the prospect of leaving the EU. Mr Cameron will be under pressure to call a referendum as soon as possible, possibly bringing it to next year. The new administration must move quickly and campaign on the back of a strong and positive case for Britain’s continued membership. Any drift or dithering on this issue will mean uncertainty for British businesses, which would be very unhelpful for the long term prospects of the economy.

09.05

Thoughts this morning with the man who put £200K on a hung parliament at Will Hill yesterday

— Matthew Holehouse (@mattholehouse) May 8, 2015

09.00

The four stocks to watch out for this morning

Courtesy of Liberum – here’s what you need to know about how the four big stocks will be faring under the Tories:

Housebuilders

UK Housebuilders should benefit given there will be no Mansion Tax, rental caps or immediate headwinds from the bond markets. The Conservatives have shown themselves supportive of housebuilding through the Help to Buy policy, which was extended to 2020, and their manifesto commits them to remain pro-housebuilding.

Financials

A positive share price reaction of stocks in the Diversified Financials sector is likely to be strongest among the asset and wealth managers.

Those with a particular focus and greatest exposure to the UK will likely react the strongest. In order of magnitude this should be Hargreaves Lansdown (SELL, TP 813p), Brewin Dolphin (BUY, TP 347p), Jupiter Fund Management (BUY, TP 450p) and Rathbones (BUY, TP 2386p).

Paragon (BUY, TP 510p) could do well too given the buy-to-let lender won’t be weighed by Ed Milliband’s rent caps on landlords.

UK Transport

Public Transport is a politically sensitive industry and risk remain. In rail, we see a Conservative-led administration continuing its existing policies, which is positive for sentiment but neutral for value. In regional buses, the risks are diminished under the Conservatives, but they do not disappear.

Devolution of transport policy to at least some English cities was a manifesto commitment. We see this as likely to lead to re-regulation, albeit in a smaller number of cities than might have been the case under Labour.

Defence

Given the Conservatives are deemed least damaging for defence, and the threat of Trident abandonment is diminished without the SNP in power, we would expect the sector to marginally outperform today.

Qinetiq (HOLD, 210p TP) has the highest exposure in our coverage, with Rolls-Royce (HOLD, 900p TP), Ultra (BUY, 1900p TP), Babcock (SELL, 1065p TP) also exposed.

08.50

The Tories economic plans in four charts

Growth forecasts for the next two years have been revised up

Year Budget estimate Autumn Statement estimate 2014 2.6 3 2015 2.5 2.4 2016 2.3 2.2 2017 2.3 2.4 2018 2.3 2.3 2019 2.4 2.3

Fiscal austerity targets have been drastically eased over the next Parliament

Year Budget estimate Autumn Statement estimate 2014/15 -90.2 -91.1 2015/16 -75.3 -75.9 2016/17 -39.4 -40.9 2017/18 -12.8 -14.5 2018/19 5.2 4 2019/20 7 23.1

The income tax free allowance will climb to £11,000 in 2016

Year Personal allowance (£) 1990-91 3005 1991-92 3295 1992-93 3445 1993-94 3445 1994-95 3445 1995-96 3525 1996-97 3765 1997-98 4045 1998-99 4195 1999-00 4335 2000-01 4385 2001-02 4535 2002-03 4615 2003-04 4615 2004-05 4745 2005-06 4895 2006-07 5035 2007-08 5225 2009-10 6035 2010-11 6475 2011-12 7475 2012-13 8105 2013-14 9440 2014-15 10600 2015-16 10800 2016-17 11000#£11,000

08.30

FTSE jumps in early morning

Date Last Price 07/05/2015 14:00 6880.05 07/05/2015 14:01 6878.44 07/05/2015 14:02 6879.26 07/05/2015 14:03 6881.06 07/05/2015 14:04 6881.08 07/05/2015 14:05 6881.25 07/05/2015 14:06 6882.55 07/05/2015 14:07 6884.64 07/05/2015 14:08 6889.55 07/05/2015 14:09 6888.53 07/05/2015 14:10 6888.21 07/05/2015 14:11 6885.26 07/05/2015 14:12 6886.01 07/05/2015 14:13 6882.03 07/05/2015 14:14 6877.49 07/05/2015 14:15 6883.21 07/05/2015 14:16 6881.82 07/05/2015 14:17 6884.53 07/05/2015 14:18 6887.87 07/05/2015 14:19 6886.96 07/05/2015 14:20 6887.65 07/05/2015 14:21 6886.19 07/05/2015 14:22 6886.77 07/05/2015 14:23 6886.69 07/05/2015 14:24 6885.78 07/05/2015 14:25 6886.58 07/05/2015 14:26 6886.53 07/05/2015 14:27 6887.32 07/05/2015 14:28 6887.95 07/05/2015 14:29 6888.37 07/05/2015 14:30 6888.25 07/05/2015 14:31 6886.59 07/05/2015 14:32 6879.41 07/05/2015 14:33 6884.13 07/05/2015 14:34 6882.2 07/05/2015 14:35 6882.8 07/05/2015 14:36 6888.1 07/05/2015 14:37 6886.73 07/05/2015 14:38 6882.93 07/05/2015 14:39 6880.82 07/05/2015 14:40 6880.53 07/05/2015 14:41 6885.08 07/05/2015 14:42 6890.19 07/05/2015 14:43 6890.3 07/05/2015 14:44 6890.44 07/05/2015 14:45 6889.18 07/05/2015 14:46 6882.54 07/05/2015 14:47 6885.4 07/05/2015 14:48 6889.3 07/05/2015 14:49 6887.15 07/05/2015 14:50 6890.78 07/05/2015 14:51 6887.51 07/05/2015 14:52 6886.02 07/05/2015 14:53 6884.34 07/05/2015 14:54 6884.04 07/05/2015 14:55 6880.15 07/05/2015 14:56 6879.23 07/05/2015 14:57 6880.95 07/05/2015 14:58 6876.44 07/05/2015 14:59 6868.25 07/05/2015 15:00 6862.27 07/05/2015 15:01 6864.74 07/05/2015 15:02 6864.53 07/05/2015 15:03 6870.97 07/05/2015 15:04 6869.25 07/05/2015 15:05 6873.48 07/05/2015 15:06 6874.28 07/05/2015 15:07 6878.07 07/05/2015 15:08 6880.46 07/05/2015 15:09 6876.66 07/05/2015 15:10 6878.01 07/05/2015 15:11 6878.01 07/05/2015 15:12 6879.35 07/05/2015 15:13 6879.93 07/05/2015 15:14 6882.53 07/05/2015 15:15 6879.79 07/05/2015 15:16 6877.89 07/05/2015 15:17 6876.17 07/05/2015 15:18 6874.59 07/05/2015 15:19 6875.43 07/05/2015 15:20 6874.01 07/05/2015 15:21 6873.25 07/05/2015 15:22 6873.8 07/05/2015 15:23 6875.02 07/05/2015 15:24 6875.07 07/05/2015 15:25 6878.57 07/05/2015 15:26 6877.55 07/05/2015 15:27 6872.64 07/05/2015 15:28 6870.65 07/05/2015 15:29 6865.81 07/05/2015 15:30 6866.94 07/05/2015 15:31 6869.15 07/05/2015 15:32 6867.5 07/05/2015 15:33 6868.43 07/05/2015 15:34 6867.56 07/05/2015 15:35 6870.43 07/05/2015 15:36 6872.88 07/05/2015 15:37 6870.82 07/05/2015 15:38 6869.99 07/05/2015 15:39 6872.8 07/05/2015 15:40 6876.3 07/05/2015 15:41 6874.55 07/05/2015 15:42 6873.37 07/05/2015 15:43 6872.07 07/05/2015 15:44 6876.57 07/05/2015 15:45 6878.57 07/05/2015 15:46 6877.02 07/05/2015 15:47 6874.21 07/05/2015 15:48 6873.65 07/05/2015 15:49 6875.36 07/05/2015 15:50 6876.09 07/05/2015 15:51 6884.07 07/05/2015 15:52 6889.34 07/05/2015 15:53 6887.06 07/05/2015 15:54 6887.46 07/05/2015 15:55 6888.4 07/05/2015 15:56 6889.27 07/05/2015 15:57 6890.25 07/05/2015 15:58 6891.31 07/05/2015 15:59 6889.28 07/05/2015 16:00 6885.39 07/05/2015 16:01 6889.29 07/05/2015 16:02 6889.22 07/05/2015 16:03 6889.09 07/05/2015 16:04 6887.97 07/05/2015 16:05 6889.63 07/05/2015 16:06 6888.41 07/05/2015 16:07 6888.99 07/05/2015 16:08 6890.85 07/05/2015 16:09 6889.69 07/05/2015 16:10 6893.06 07/05/2015 16:11 6894.24 07/05/2015 16:12 6893.87 07/05/2015 16:13 6891.79 07/05/2015 16:14 6891.35 07/05/2015 16:15 6891.99 07/05/2015 16:16 6889.73 07/05/2015 16:17 6891.99 07/05/2015 16:18 6892.95 07/05/2015 16:19 6898.44 07/05/2015 16:20 6898.83 07/05/2015 16:21 6896.76 07/05/2015 16:22 6896.31 07/05/2015 16:23 6902.32 07/05/2015 16:24 6904.38 07/05/2015 16:25 6904.35 07/05/2015 16:26 6900.77 07/05/2015 16:27 6899.49 07/05/2015 16:28 6898.51 07/05/2015 16:29 6897.69 07/05/2015 16:35 6886.95 08/05/2015 08:00 6964.73 08/05/2015 08:01 6963.01 08/05/2015 08:02 6964.47 08/05/2015 08:03 6969.86 08/05/2015 08:04 6968.83 08/05/2015 08:05 7018.97 08/05/2015 08:06 7029.7 08/05/2015 08:07 7033.86 08/05/2015 08:08 7026.41 08/05/2015 08:09 7018.17 08/05/2015 08:10 7024.33 08/05/2015 08:11 7021.88 08/05/2015 08:12 7025.91

08.10

FTSE soars; bonds fall

More signs of euphoria. The FTSE has risen by nearly 2pc, the most since January, while Britain’s borrowing costs, as measured by 10 year gilts, have dropped by 14 basis points to 1.78pc.

10-year government bond yields tumble

Date Last Price 07/05/2015 08:00 2.005 07/05/2015 08:01 2.006 07/05/2015 08:02 2.01 07/05/2015 08:03 2.006 07/05/2015 08:04 2.006 07/05/2015 08:05 2.007 07/05/2015 08:06 2.011 07/05/2015 08:07 2.015 07/05/2015 08:08 2.015 07/05/2015 08:09 2.019 07/05/2015 08:10 2.016 07/05/2015 08:11 2.009 07/05/2015 08:12 2.009 07/05/2015 08:13 2.014 07/05/2015 08:14 2.016 07/05/2015 08:15 2.016 07/05/2015 08:16 2.023 07/05/2015 08:17 2.019 07/05/2015 08:18 2.017 07/05/2015 08:19 2.013 07/05/2015 08:20 2.013 07/05/2015 08:21 2.01 07/05/2015 08:22 2.006 07/05/2015 08:23 2.005 07/05/2015 08:24 2.007 07/05/2015 08:25 2.009 07/05/2015 08:26 2.013 07/05/2015 08:27 2.014 07/05/2015 08:28 2.01 07/05/2015 08:29 2.006 07/05/2015 08:30 2.01 07/05/2015 08:31 2.007 07/05/2015 08:32 2.006 07/05/2015 08:33 2.001 07/05/2015 08:34 2.007 07/05/2015 08:35 2.006 07/05/2015 08:36 2.006 07/05/2015 08:37 2.006 07/05/2015 08:38 2.002 07/05/2015 08:39 2.001 07/05/2015 08:40 2.002 07/05/2015 08:41 2.002 07/05/2015 08:42 1.998 07/05/2015 08:43 2.001 07/05/2015 08:44 2.002 07/05/2015 08:45 1.999 07/05/2015 08:46 1.996 07/05/2015 08:47 1.997 07/05/2015 08:48 2 07/05/2015 08:49 1.996 07/05/2015 08:50 1.996 07/05/2015 08:51 1.998 07/05/2015 08:52 1.999 07/05/2015 08:53 2 07/05/2015 08:54 1.999 07/05/2015 08:55 2.002 07/05/2015 08:56 2.002 07/05/2015 08:57 2.007 07/05/2015 08:58 2.003 07/05/2015 08:59 2.005 07/05/2015 09:00 2.008 07/05/2015 09:01 2.005 07/05/2015 09:02 2.005 07/05/2015 09:03 2.011 07/05/2015 09:04 2.012 07/05/2015 09:05 2.011 07/05/2015 09:06 2.013 07/05/2015 09:07 2.016 07/05/2015 09:08 2.017 07/05/2015 09:09 2.019 07/05/2015 09:10 2.018 07/05/2015 09:11 2.015 07/05/2015 09:12 2.016 07/05/2015 09:13 2.014 07/05/2015 09:14 2.014 07/05/2015 09:15 2.015 07/05/2015 09:16 2.012 07/05/2015 09:17 2.01 07/05/2015 09:18 2.012 07/05/2015 09:19 2.01 07/05/2015 09:20 2.01 07/05/2015 09:21 2.005 07/05/2015 09:22 2.005 07/05/2015 09:23 2.003 07/05/2015 09:24 1.999 07/05/2015 09:25 1.999 07/05/2015 09:26 2.002 07/05/2015 09:27 2.002 07/05/2015 09:28 2.003 07/05/2015 09:29 2.004 07/05/2015 09:30 2.001 07/05/2015 09:31 1.999 07/05/2015 09:32 2.003 07/05/2015 09:33 2.007 07/05/2015 09:34 2.004 07/05/2015 09:35 2.011 07/05/2015 09:36 2.011 07/05/2015 09:37 2.012 07/05/2015 09:38 2.01 07/05/2015 09:39 2.013 07/05/2015 09:40 2.011 07/05/2015 09:41 2.01 07/05/2015 09:42 2.013 07/05/2015 09:43 2.01 07/05/2015 09:44 2.016 07/05/2015 09:45 2.01 07/05/2015 09:46 2.005 07/05/2015 09:47 2.003 07/05/2015 09:48 2.002 07/05/2015 09:49 2.007 07/05/2015 09:50 2.004 07/05/2015 09:51 2.002 07/05/2015 09:52 2.003 07/05/2015 09:53 2.006 07/05/2015 09:54 2.006 07/05/2015 09:55 2.005 07/05/2015 09:56 2.004 07/05/2015 09:57 2.007 07/05/2015 09:58 2.007 07/05/2015 09:59 2.007 07/05/2015 10:00 2.01 07/05/2015 10:01 2.011 07/05/2015 10:02 2.01 07/05/2015 10:03 2.009 07/05/2015 10:04 2.014 07/05/2015 10:05 2.017 07/05/2015 10:06 2.018 07/05/2015 10:07 2.019 07/05/2015 10:08 2.026 07/05/2015 10:09 2.028 07/05/2015 10:10 2.029 07/05/2015 10:11 2.036 07/05/2015 10:12 2.042 07/05/2015 10:13 2.049 07/05/2015 10:14 2.056 07/05/2015 10:15 2.058 07/05/2015 10:16 2.061 07/05/2015 10:17 2.059 07/05/2015 10:18 2.05 07/05/2015 10:19 2.039 07/05/2015 10:20 2.052 07/05/2015 10:21 2.052 07/05/2015 10:22 2.045 07/05/2015 10:23 2.048 07/05/2015 10:24 2.046 07/05/2015 10:25 2.045 07/05/2015 10:26 2.041 07/05/2015 10:27 2.04 07/05/2015 10:28 2.04 07/05/2015 10:29 2.029 07/05/2015 10:30 2.041 07/05/2015 10:31 2.052 07/05/2015 10:32 2.048 07/05/2015 10:33 2.046 07/05/2015 10:34 2.045 07/05/2015 10:35 2.04 07/05/2015 10:36 2.048 07/05/2015 10:37 2.052 07/05/2015 10:38 2.057 07/05/2015 10:39 2.051 07/05/2015 10:40 2.046 07/05/2015 10:41 2.044 07/05/2015 10:42 2.043 07/05/2015 10:43 2.041 07/05/2015 10:44 2.038 07/05/2015 10:45 2.04 07/05/2015 10:46 2.039 07/05/2015 10:47 2.04 07/05/2015 10:48 2.038 07/05/2015 10:49 2.034 07/05/2015 10:50 2.037 07/05/2015 10:51 2.029 07/05/2015 10:52 2.032 07/05/2015 10:53 2.032 07/05/2015 10:54 2.028 07/05/2015 10:55 2.029 07/05/2015 10:56 2.03 07/05/2015 10:57 2.026 07/05/2015 10:58 2.026 07/05/2015 10:59 2.026 07/05/2015 11:00 2.026 07/05/2015 11:01 2.027 07/05/2015 11:02 2.033 07/05/2015 11:03 2.033 07/05/2015 11:04 2.039 07/05/2015 11:05 2.034 07/05/2015 11:06 2.028 07/05/2015 11:07 2.027 07/05/2015 11:08 2.023 07/05/2015 11:09 2.02 07/05/2015 11:10 2.024 07/05/2015 11:11 2.027 07/05/2015 11:12 2.027 07/05/2015 11:13 2.028 07/05/2015 11:14 2.033 07/05/2015 11:15 2.028 07/05/2015 11:16 2.033 07/05/2015 11:17 2.037 07/05/2015 11:18 2.039 07/05/2015 11:19 2.036 07/05/2015 11:20 2.034 07/05/2015 11:21 2.034 07/05/2015 11:22 2.031 07/05/2015 11:23 2.027 07/05/2015 11:24 2.032 07/05/2015 11:25 2.029 07/05/2015 11:26 2.026 07/05/2015 11:27 2.024 07/05/2015 11:28 2.026 07/05/2015 11:29 2.027 07/05/2015 11:30 2.024 07/05/2015 11:31 2.028 07/05/2015 11:32 2.029 07/05/2015 11:33 2.027 07/05/2015 11:34 2.029 07/05/2015 11:35 2.027 07/05/2015 11:36 2.025 07/05/2015 11:37 2.025 07/05/2015 11:38 2.027 07/05/2015 11:39 2.026 07/05/2015 11:40 2.023 07/05/2015 11:41 2.022 07/05/2015 11:42 2.017 07/05/2015 11:43 2.019 07/05/2015 11:44 2.02 07/05/2015 11:45 2.02 07/05/2015 11:46 2.015 07/05/2015 11:47 2.011 07/05/2015 11:48 2.012 07/05/2015 11:49 2.013 07/05/2015 11:50 2.012 07/05/2015 11:51 2.011 07/05/2015 11:52 2.01 07/05/2015 11:53 2.008 07/05/2015 11:54 2.008 07/05/2015 11:55 2.008 07/05/2015 11:56 2.001 07/05/2015 11:57 2.004 07/05/2015 11:58 2.002 07/05/2015 11:59 2.003 07/05/2015 12:00 2.007 07/05/2015 12:01 2.002 07/05/2015 12:02 1.997 07/05/2015 12:03 1.998 07/05/2015 12:04 1.994 07/05/2015 12:05 1.995 07/05/2015 12:06 1.995 07/05/2015 12:07 1.993 07/05/2015 12:08 1.99 07/05/2015 12:09 1.981 07/05/2015 12:10 1.982 07/05/2015 12:11 1.979 07/05/2015 12:12 1.973 07/05/2015 12:13 1.975 07/05/2015 12:14 1.976 07/05/2015 12:15 1.978 07/05/2015 12:16 1.975 07/05/2015 12:17 1.976 07/05/2015 12:18 1.972 07/05/2015 12:19 1.979 07/05/2015 12:20 1.979 07/05/2015 12:21 1.98 07/05/2015 12:22 1.981 07/05/2015 12:23 1.985 07/05/2015 12:24 1.986 07/05/2015 12:25 1.982 07/05/2015 12:26 1.981 07/05/2015 12:27 1.975 07/05/2015 12:28 1.968 07/05/2015 12:29 1.971 07/05/2015 12:30 1.969 07/05/2015 12:31 1.973 07/05/2015 12:32 1.973 07/05/2015 12:33 1.973 07/05/2015 12:34 1.976 07/05/2015 12:35 1.975 07/05/2015 12:36 1.974 07/05/2015 12:37 1.969 07/05/2015 12:38 1.967 07/05/2015 12:39 1.963 07/05/2015 12:40 1.961 07/05/2015 12:41 1.959 07/05/2015 12:42 1.957 07/05/2015 12:43 1.955 07/05/2015 12:44 1.957 07/05/2015 12:45 1.959 07/05/2015 12:46 1.954 07/05/2015 12:47 1.953 07/05/2015 12:48 1.953 07/05/2015 12:49 1.943 07/05/2015 12:50 1.948 07/05/2015 12:51 1.947 07/05/2015 12:52 1.946 07/05/2015 12:53 1.943 07/05/2015 12:54 1.951 07/05/2015 12:55 1.955 07/05/2015 12:56 1.949 07/05/2015 12:57 1.956 07/05/2015 12:58 1.956 07/05/2015 12:59 1.957 07/05/2015 13:00 1.963 07/05/2015 13:01 1.965 07/05/2015 13:02 1.968 07/05/2015 13:03 1.967 07/05/2015 13:04 1.96 07/05/2015 13:05 1.959 07/05/2015 13:06 1.96 07/05/2015 13:07 1.961 07/05/2015 13:08 1.958 07/05/2015 13:09 1.962 07/05/2015 13:10 1.964 07/05/2015 13:11 1.958 07/05/2015 13:12 1.959 07/05/2015 13:13 1.957 07/05/2015 13:14 1.954 07/05/2015 13:15 1.953 07/05/2015 13:16 1.953 07/05/2015 13:17 1.956 07/05/2015 13:18 1.959 07/05/2015 13:19 1.961 07/05/2015 13:20 1.964 07/05/2015 13:21 1.961 07/05/2015 13:22 1.959 07/05/2015 13:23 1.957 07/05/2015 13:24 1.963 07/05/2015 13:25 1.962 07/05/2015 13:26 1.962 07/05/2015 13:27 1.959 07/05/2015 13:28 1.961 07/05/2015 13:29 1.962 07/05/2015 13:30 1.969 07/05/2015 13:31 1.97 07/05/2015 13:32 1.961 07/05/2015 13:33 1.963 07/05/2015 13:34 1.955 07/05/2015 13:35 1.95 07/05/2015 13:36 1.959 07/05/2015 13:37 1.96 07/05/2015 13:38 1.955 07/05/2015 13:39 1.955 07/05/2015 13:40 1.959 07/05/2015 13:41 1.96 07/05/2015 13:42 1.965 07/05/2015 13:43 1.969 07/05/2015 13:44 1.969 07/05/2015 13:45 1.974 07/05/2015 13:46 1.973 07/05/2015 13:47 1.972 07/05/2015 13:48 1.982 07/05/2015 13:49 1.979 07/05/2015 13:50 1.978 07/05/2015 13:51 1.98 07/05/2015 13:52 1.971 07/05/2015 13:53 1.972 07/05/2015 13:54 1.972 07/05/2015 13:55 1.968 07/05/2015 13:56 1.967 07/05/2015 13:57 1.969 07/05/2015 13:58 1.972 07/05/2015 13:59 1.976 07/05/2015 14:00 1.972 07/05/2015 14:01 1.967 07/05/2015 14:02 1.964 07/05/2015 14:03 1.967 07/05/2015 14:04 1.966 07/05/2015 14:05 1.969 07/05/2015 14:06 1.971 07/05/2015 14:07 1.97 07/05/2015 14:08 1.967 07/05/2015 14:09 1.963 07/05/2015 14:10 1.972 07/05/2015 14:11 1.966 07/05/2015 14:12 1.966 07/05/2015 14:13 1.97 07/05/2015 14:14 1.963 07/05/2015 14:15 1.967 07/05/2015 14:16 1.963 07/05/2015 14:17 1.963 07/05/2015 14:18 1.96 07/05/2015 14:19 1.959 07/05/2015 14:20 1.958 07/05/2015 14:21 1.956 07/05/2015 14:22 1.956 07/05/2015 14:23 1.958 07/05/2015 14:24 1.96 07/05/2015 14:25 1.961 07/05/2015 14:26 1.96 07/05/2015 14:27 1.962 07/05/2015 14:28 1.962 07/05/2015 14:29 1.962 07/05/2015 14:30 1.958 07/05/2015 14:31 1.956 07/05/2015 14:32 1.953 07/05/2015 14:33 1.95 07/05/2015 14:34 1.948 07/05/2015 14:35 1.948 07/05/2015 14:36 1.952 07/05/2015 14:37 1.951 07/05/2015 14:38 1.954 07/05/2015 14:39 1.952 07/05/2015 14:40 1.952 07/05/2015 14:41 1.954 07/05/2015 14:42 1.951 07/05/2015 14:43 1.948 07/05/2015 14:44 1.947 07/05/2015 14:45 1.946 07/05/2015 14:46 1.943 07/05/2015 14:47 1.942 07/05/2015 14:48 1.938 07/05/2015 14:49 1.932 07/05/2015 14:50 1.934 07/05/2015 14:51 1.928 07/05/2015 14:52 1.926 07/05/2015 14:53 1.926 07/05/2015 14:54 1.929 07/05/2015 14:55 1.935 07/05/2015 14:56 1.935 07/05/2015 14:57 1.93 07/05/2015 14:58 1.934 07/05/2015 14:59 1.934 07/05/2015 15:00 1.932 07/05/2015 15:01 1.929 07/05/2015 15:02 1.931 07/05/2015 15:03 1.933 07/05/2015 15:04 1.933 07/05/2015 15:05 1.93 07/05/2015 15:06 1.931 07/05/2015 15:07 1.932 07/05/2015 15:08 1.932 07/05/2015 15:09 1.934 07/05/2015 15:10 1.934 07/05/2015 15:11 1.933 07/05/2015 15:12 1.933 07/05/2015 15:13 1.932 07/05/2015 15:14 1.934 07/05/2015 15:15 1.937 07/05/2015 15:16 1.939 07/05/2015 15:17 1.936 07/05/2015 15:18 1.937 07/05/2015 15:19 1.934 07/05/2015 15:20 1.934 07/05/2015 15:21 1.931 07/05/2015 15:22 1.931 07/05/2015 15:23 1.932 07/05/2015 15:24 1.936 07/05/2015 15:25 1.937 07/05/2015 15:26 1.938 07/05/2015 15:27 1.944 07/05/2015 15:28 1.948 07/05/2015 15:29 1.943 07/05/2015 15:30 1.941 07/05/2015 15:31 1.943 07/05/2015 15:32 1.946 07/05/2015 15:33 1.944 07/05/2015 15:34 1.945 07/05/2015 15:35 1.947 07/05/2015 15:36 1.942 07/05/2015 15:37 1.945 07/05/2015 15:38 1.941 07/05/2015 15:39 1.942 07/05/2015 15:40 1.938 07/05/2015 15:41 1.941 07/05/2015 15:42 1.942 07/05/2015 15:43 1.946 07/05/2015 15:44 1.944 07/05/2015 15:45 1.942 07/05/2015 15:46 1.94 07/05/2015 15:47 1.938 07/05/2015 15:48 1.944 07/05/2015 15:49 1.939 07/05/2015 15:50 1.934 07/05/2015 15:51 1.935 07/05/2015 15:52 1.935 07/05/2015 15:53 1.934 07/05/2015 15:54 1.929 07/05/2015 15:55 1.929 07/05/2015 15:56 1.932 07/05/2015 15:57 1.932 07/05/2015 15:58 1.932 07/05/2015 15:59 1.93 07/05/2015 16:00 1.932 07/05/2015 16:01 1.933 07/05/2015 16:02 1.935 07/05/2015 16:03 1.937 07/05/2015 16:04 1.937 07/05/2015 16:05 1.936 07/05/2015 16:06 1.937 07/05/2015 16:07 1.933 07/05/2015 16:08 1.933 07/05/2015 16:09 1.931 07/05/2015 16:10 1.93 07/05/2015 16:11 1.93 07/05/2015 16:12 1.928 07/05/2015 16:13 1.931 07/05/2015 16:14 1.938 07/05/2015 16:15 1.937 07/05/2015 16:16 1.941 07/05/2015 16:17 1.939 07/05/2015 16:18 1.937 07/05/2015 16:19 1.934 07/05/2015 16:20 1.934 07/05/2015 16:21 1.936 07/05/2015 16:22 1.934 07/05/2015 16:23 1.935 07/05/2015 16:24 1.932 07/05/2015 16:25 1.933 07/05/2015 16:26 1.931 07/05/2015 16:27 1.931 07/05/2015 16:28 1.929 07/05/2015 16:29 1.932 07/05/2015 16:30 1.929 07/05/2015 16:31 1.929 07/05/2015 16:32 1.925 07/05/2015 16:33 1.926 07/05/2015 16:34 1.928 07/05/2015 16:35 1.926 07/05/2015 16:36 1.928 07/05/2015 16:37 1.93 07/05/2015 16:38 1.927 07/05/2015 16:39 1.924 07/05/2015 16:40 1.924 07/05/2015 16:41 1.925 07/05/2015 16:42 1.922 07/05/2015 16:43 1.919 07/05/2015 16:44 1.916 07/05/2015 16:45 1.917 07/05/2015 16:46 1.919 07/05/2015 16:47 1.916 07/05/2015 16:48 1.916 07/05/2015 16:49 1.916 07/05/2015 16:50 1.914 07/05/2015 16:51 1.913 07/05/2015 16:52 1.915 07/05/2015 16:53 1.916 07/05/2015 16:54 1.916 07/05/2015 16:55 1.918 07/05/2015 16:56 1.92 07/05/2015 16:57 1.922 07/05/2015 16:58 1.922 07/05/2015 16:59 1.921 08/05/2015 08:00 1.78 08/05/2015 08:01 1.786 08/05/2015 08:02 1.792

Meanwhile, stocks in Britain’s biggest banks, betting firms and builders have all risen this morning. Here’s the best of them

Lloyds: 8.4pc
William Hill: 6.8pc
RBS: 5.4pc

Barclays: 4.6pc
Ladbrokes 8.6

Centrica: 8.8pc

08.00

Tighter fiscal policy will mean monetary policy will stay accommodative under the Tories, notes Alan Wilde at Baring Asset Management. But there’s still plenty to do to balance the books. Here he is in full:

The job is clearly not done (in reducing the debt/GDP burden) but this morning that will largely be forgotten in the euphoria of a relief rally. Further down the road the new Government will be anxious about the lack of productivity growth in the UK and dependency on the consumer for growth and a lower exchange rate, particularly against the euro, may be a means to rebalance the economy and underwrite growth.”

07.55

The coporate view on what a Tory government could mean from our Technology, Media, and Telecommunications editor Chris Williams

Tory majority = break up of BT more unlikely, BBC facing major licence fee battle, Channel 4 likely to be privatised.

— Chris Williams (@cg_williams) May 8, 2015

07.50

Big question for Cameron in Brussels: will the win be big enough to overturn EU resistance to treaty change? & how much of it he can get?

— Bruno Waterfield (@BrunoBrussels) May 8, 2015

Brexit polls

— Mehreen (@MehreenKhn) May 7, 2015

07.45

What’s the story? Tory glory, say HSBC in the most inspired note we’ve seen all morning. Well done them.

They highlight that the prospect of a referendum could mean the Bank of England will have to pay ” attention to the regulatory and financial stability implications of such a scenario”.

But with Tory fiscal policy remaining tight in the near term, an interest rate hike is not likely to be on the cards before the start of next year.

07.39

There’s a pretty clear message coming from economy watchers at the City this morning: plenty of problematic issues on the horizon with a Tory win, but for now, investors are unfussed.

Here’s Vicky Redwood from Capital Economics:

Admittedly, a Tory victory means that the economy will have to endure a fairly aggressive renewal of the fiscal squeeze. On top of that, investment could suffer from uncertainty ahead of the referendum on UK membership of the EU that will presumably now take place. Meanwhile, the success of the SNP suggests that Scottish independence could also come back onto the agenda.

But none of this is too worrying. The Conservatives may find cutting spending as much as they want hard to achieve anyway. Meanwhile, note that investment in Scotland held up well in the run-up to the independence referendum there last year. And the UK’s fundamentals otherwise look pretty good. Note that the tight Tory fiscal plans make it more likely that interest rates will stay lower for longer. Overall, then, we remain pretty optimistic about the economic outlook

07.30

Oliver Harvey at Deutsche Bank thinks the pound will rise further should a Tory majority be secured later today. But beware Brexit if you’re an investor:

A Conservative-led government means a high probability of a referendum on EU membership before 2017. With a smaller majority, more Eurosceptic elements of the Conservative party could hold more sway over the timing of the referendum and negotiating strategy employed.

However, we think this unlikely to be primary in investors’ minds just yet. With respect to Scotland, a Conservative-led government means a new referendum is off the table for the foreseeable future. Yet the SNP’s destruction of the Labour party north of the border, and the fact the party will be shut out of policy making under the Conservatives arguably raises the long term risks of succession. Finally, the outcome raises serious question over the reliability of UK opinion pollsters with the result arguably as surprising as the failure of opinion pollsters to predict a Conservative majority in 1992.

07.25

A night of the long knives for finance chiefs. Danny Alexander has lost his seat this morning and Ed Balls might be joining him.

If Balls loses in Morley, then 2 of 3 main parties’ finance spokesmen will have lost seats. Surely the first time in history #GE2015

— Bobby Friedman (@BobbyFriedman) May 8, 2015

07.20

Some Brexit thoughts from The Economist’s Tom Nuttall, who notes that the PM is in a bit of a bind.

Without the Lib Dems, Mr Cameron is more reliant on the parliamentary support of his unweildy eurosceptic backbenchers, who are likely to push the Tory leader to fight harder to renegotiate the terms of the UK’s deal with Brussels.

Odds of Brexit, though still long, now shortened. Why? a) Absence of Lib Dems in government removes pro-European constraint on Tories. (2/4)

— Tom Nuttall (@tom_nuttall) May 8, 2015

b) Slim (or non-existent) Conservative majority raises leverage of troublesome Tory backbenchers. (3/4)

— Tom Nuttall (@tom_nuttall) May 8, 2015

c) Cam may feel his negotiating hand in Brussels is strengthened by surprisingly good result on back of clear referendum pledge. (4/4)

— Tom Nuttall (@tom_nuttall) May 8, 2015

07.10

Sterling is soaring against the euro this morning. Now up nearly 3pc

07.00

The post-election euphoria is setting in for markets. FTSE futures are up 2pc

FTSE futures doing a sterling – up 2% #GE2015

— World First (@World_First) May 8, 2015

06.50

Here’s a summary of UBS Wealth Management’s thoughts on the election outcome: in particular their thoughts on “Brexit” and “Scoxit” on the politics, markets, and the economy.

Political impact

“The odds were stacked against such a decisive outcome. This result is far less complicated than the markets’ worst fears. But we are still dealing with a government with a miniscule working majority at best.

“Once people acclimatise to the certain outcome eyes will immediately turn to the challenges lying ahead. Brexit and Scoxit will now become chief concerns.

“The question on politicians’’ lips will be ‘can the newly vindicated Cameron hold the line against a resurgent set of backbenchers?’. The UKIP rise has been substantial and this sends a clear anti-EU message. Without the Lib Dems in place to water down opposition, a more robust approach on the EU Referendum could emerge.

Market impact

“Markets will respond swiftly today and in the coming days. With certainty will come a renewed confidence from investors in a more stable and transparent policy climate. For now, let’s enjoy the relief rally.

A renewed commitment to austerity should support gilts.

“Sterling will, in our view, be moved by a number of different factors in the coming days and weeks. It could hold the initial gains following the astounding exit polls last night but the Brexit and Scottish devolution debates might influence the path of the pound quicker than we think.

Economic impact

“The good news is that the current fiscal trajectory remains firmly in place. Importantly, the Bank of England will not be confronted by a change in the fiscal framework. This could prompt lower for longer interest rates.

“There could be clouds on the horizon for the UK economy if growth momentum is seen to have slowed, but broadly the economic context is relatively bright.”

06.45

The country’s estate agents are joining in with the relief rally this morning. Having warned that the prospect of a double election could lead to a property deadlock plenty of housing commentators are cheering this morning’s news.

Mark Tunstall an independent buyer said the result was the “best news the property market in prime central London could have hoped for.”

“The prospects of a mansion tax will now significantly diminish, investor confidence will return and this will help to re-start the upper end of the housing market in particular – in prime central London and the wider south-east, where more than 80pc of the properties valued at £2 million or more are situated, purchasers’ nervousness ahead of the election proved a significant drag on the sales of more expensive property, which have fallen substantially over the past 12 months.”

Estate agents to breathe sign of relief if Tories secure win “houses prices in central London to rise 10pc” reaction from @Rokstoneprop

— Telegraph Finance (@TeleFinance) May 8, 2015

06.40

Uncertainty of 2010 exit poll rattled the pound. Certainty of last night’s has got sterling firing on all cylinders #GE2015

— World First (@World_First) May 8, 2015

06.35

Stability, stability, stability: That’s what’s driving market sentiment around the pound this morning, say analysts at Citi

Citi on UK elections result.

— Robin Wigglesworth (@RobinWigg) May 8, 2015

06.33

Cameron name-drops “that referendum we must hold to decide Britain’s future in Europe” in speech as he is re-elected MP #GE2015 #Brexit

— Naomi O’Leary (@NaomiOhReally) May 8, 2015

06.30

The other huge winners of the night are the Scottish National Party who are on course to win every seat in Scotland. Labour have been wiped out in the Highlands, raising the very real possibility of another vote on Scottish independence over the next five years.

This is the other big uncertainty that is likely to weigh on markets after the euphoria of the post-election hours begins to wear off.

Here are Simon Derrick’s thoughts from BNY Mellon, on the long-term outlook for sterling.

Looking out beyond tonight it seems likely that the principal topic of conversation amongst investors will be the possibility of at least one and possibly two referenda in the UK over the next few years.

Many will remember how poorly GBP performed in early September of last year in the face of a potential Scottish exit from the union and wonder whether the threat of two new votes could similarly weigh on the currency. No doubt this will prove to be a factor in the short term. However, it is worth remembering two things.

Firstly, both an EU referendum or a possible rerun of the Scottish referendum would be several years in the future. Secondly, the Scottish referendum in 2014 only impacted GBP in the immediate run up to the vote despite a tight race through most of the year.

06.25

#FTSE looks set to open at 6,985, 98 points higher

— Michael Hewson (@mhewson_CMC) May 8, 2015

06.20

Today’s election result will have just as many repercussions in Brussels as it will Britain. David Cameron has pledged to hold a vote on Britain’s relationship with the EU by 2017.

The outcome of a referendum to stay in or out of the EU could lead to a potential re-opening of Europe’s treaties, which would then require ratification across the Union’s 27 member states.

Grey morning in Brussels, where prospect of two years of Brexit negotiations will be like a cup of cold sick with many officials’ breakfasts

— Danny Kemp (@dannyctkemp) May 8, 2015

Breaking: Nuneaton news reaches Brussels and @JunckerEU

— Mehreen (@MehreenKhn) May 8, 2015

06.15

The FTSE is set to open in a couple of hours at 8am, and could open as much as 100 points higher as the Conservatives are on course for victory, says Joshua Raymond at City Index.

Currently forecasting #FTSE100 to open +100pts when markets open in over 2hrs time

— Joshua Raymond (@Josh_CityIndex) May 8, 2015

06.10

This relatively surprising result for the Tories has boosted the pound throughout the morning, but investors are not so sanguine about the long-term suggests Howard Archer, at IHS Global. He suggests uncertainty around a looming EU referendum could have an “appreciable” impact on market sentiment.

Sterling has surged as markets like the fact that Conservatives will be in relatively strong position

— Howard Archer (@HowardArcherUK) May 8, 2015

Conservatives performance likely to be good overall for economy in near term at least due to more political stability than looked likely

— Howard Archer (@HowardArcherUK) May 8, 2015

But EU referendum looms larger now which is likely to lead to appreciable market and business uncertainty further out

— Howard Archer (@HowardArcherUK) May 8, 2015

06.00

Hello and welcome to live markets coverage of the morning after the night before.

Investors have been bouyant at the prospect of five more years of the Conservatives in Downing Street. The pound has been rising since 10pm last night , when the first exit poll put the Tories on course for a victory.

Sterling has soared by more than 1.75pc against the dollar to $ 1.551 – a two-and-a-half month high. The pound has risen by a six-year high against the euro to €1.382 – a near 2pc jump.

The pound’s ascent continued in the early hours of the morning, as David Cameron’s party looks set to secure a majority, with 325 seats according to the BBC, 90 more than Labour.

Sterling has continued its rise as Conservatives on course for victory

07/05/2015 21:00 1.5262 07/05/2015 21:01 1.5263 07/05/2015 21:02 1.5263 07/05/2015 21:03 1.5263 07/05/2015 21:04 1.5266 07/05/2015 21:05 1.5262 07/05/2015 21:06 1.5262 07/05/2015 21:07 1.5262 07/05/2015 21:08 1.5261 07/05/2015 21:09 1.5258 07/05/2015 21:10 1.5258 07/05/2015 21:11 1.5256 07/05/2015 21:12 1.5256 07/05/2015 21:13 1.5257 07/05/2015 21:14 1.5257 07/05/2015 21:15 1.5258 07/05/2015 21:16 1.5257 07/05/2015 21:17 1.5259 07/05/2015 21:18 1.5258 07/05/2015 21:19 1.5257 07/05/2015 21:20 1.5258 07/05/2015 21:21 1.5257 07/05/2015 21:22 1.5258 07/05/2015 21:23 1.5256 07/05/2015 21:24 1.5257 07/05/2015 21:25 1.5257 07/05/2015 21:26 1.5257 07/05/2015 21:27 1.5257 07/05/2015 21:28 1.5257 07/05/2015 21:29 1.5259 07/05/2015 21:30 1.526 07/05/2015 21:31 1.5258 07/05/2015 21:32 1.5259 07/05/2015 21:33 1.5259 07/05/2015 21:34 1.526 07/05/2015 21:35 1.526 07/05/2015 21:36 1.5259 07/05/2015 21:37 1.5259 07/05/2015 21:38 1.5259 07/05/2015 21:39 1.526 07/05/2015 21:40 1.526 07/05/2015 21:41 1.526 07/05/2015 21:42 1.526 07/05/2015 21:43 1.5261 07/05/2015 21:44 1.5261 07/05/2015 21:45 1.5259 07/05/2015 21:46 1.526 07/05/2015 21:47 1.5259 07/05/2015 21:48 1.526 07/05/2015 21:49 1.5263 07/05/2015 21:50 1.5262 07/05/2015 21:51 1.5262 07/05/2015 21:52 1.5262 07/05/2015 21:53 1.5262 07/05/2015 21:54 1.5262 07/05/2015 21:55 1.5261 07/05/2015 21:56 1.5254 07/05/2015 21:57 1.5255 07/05/2015 21:58 1.5248 07/05/2015 21:59 1.5247 07/05/2015 22:00 1.531 07/05/2015 22:01 1.541 07/05/2015 22:02 1.5399 07/05/2015 22:03 1.541 07/05/2015 22:04 1.5416 07/05/2015 22:05 1.5412 07/05/2015 22:06 1.5411 07/05/2015 22:07 1.5411 07/05/2015 22:08 1.541 07/05/2015 22:09 1.5398 07/05/2015 22:10 1.5384 07/05/2015 22:11 1.5386 07/05/2015 22:12 1.5384 07/05/2015 22:13 1.5371 07/05/2015 22:14 1.5377 07/05/2015 22:15 1.5379 07/05/2015 22:16 1.5388 07/05/2015 22:17 1.5387 07/05/2015 22:18 1.5396 07/05/2015 22:19 1.5397 07/05/2015 22:20 1.5396 07/05/2015 22:21 1.5404 07/05/2015 22:22 1.5398 07/05/2015 22:23 1.5393 07/05/2015 22:24 1.5389 07/05/2015 22:25 1.5392 07/05/2015 22:26 1.5399 07/05/2015 22:27 1.5402 07/05/2015 22:28 1.5411 07/05/2015 22:29 1.541 07/05/2015 22:30 1.5411 07/05/2015 22:31 1.5416 07/05/2015 22:32 1.5419 07/05/2015 22:33 1.5417 07/05/2015 22:34 1.5416 07/05/2015 22:35 1.5415 07/05/2015 22:36 1.5418 07/05/2015 22:37 1.5423 07/05/2015 22:38 1.5437 07/05/2015 22:39 1.5442 07/05/2015 22:40 1.5442 07/05/2015 22:41 1.5444 07/05/2015 22:42 1.5446 07/05/2015 22:43 1.5446 07/05/2015 22:44 1.5445 07/05/2015 22:45 1.5444 07/05/2015 22:46 1.5443 07/05/2015 22:47 1.5443 07/05/2015 22:48 1.5441 07/05/2015 22:49 1.544 07/05/2015 22:50 1.5436 07/05/2015 22:51 1.5433 07/05/2015 22:52 1.5431 07/05/2015 22:53 1.5428 07/05/2015 22:54 1.5429 07/05/2015 22:55 1.5427 07/05/2015 22:56 1.5427 07/05/2015 22:57 1.5422 07/05/2015 22:58 1.5418 07/05/2015 22:59 1.542 07/05/2015 23:00 1.5423 07/05/2015 23:01 1.5414 07/05/2015 23:02 1.5421 07/05/2015 23:03 1.5418 07/05/2015 23:04 1.5415 07/05/2015 23:05 1.5415 07/05/2015 23:06 1.5412 07/05/2015 23:07 1.5411 07/05/2015 23:08 1.5408 07/05/2015 23:09 1.5405 07/05/2015 23:10 1.541 07/05/2015 23:11 1.5413 07/05/2015 23:12 1.5411 07/05/2015 23:13 1.5411 07/05/2015 23:14 1.5412 07/05/2015 23:15 1.5414 07/05/2015 23:16 1.5414 07/05/2015 23:17 1.5414 07/05/2015 23:18 1.5414 07/05/2015 23:19 1.5414 07/05/2015 23:20 1.5414 07/05/2015 23:21 1.5415 07/05/2015 23:22 1.5416 07/05/2015 23:23 1.5419 07/05/2015 23:24 1.5425 07/05/2015 23:25 1.5424 07/05/2015 23:26 1.5426 07/05/2015 23:27 1.5426 07/05/2015 23:28 1.5424 07/05/2015 23:29 1.5424 07/05/2015 23:30 1.5423 07/05/2015 23:31 1.5424 07/05/2015 23:32 1.5422 07/05/2015 23:33 1.5423 07/05/2015 23:34 1.5423 07/05/2015 23:35 1.5422 07/05/2015 23:36 1.5421 07/05/2015 23:37 1.5419 07/05/2015 23:38 1.5416 07/05/2015 23:39 1.5416 07/05/2015 23:40 1.5417 07/05/2015 23:41 1.5415 07/05/2015 23:42 1.5416 07/05/2015 23:43 1.5411 07/05/2015 23:44 1.5407 07/05/2015 23:45 1.5401 07/05/2015 23:46 1.5395 07/05/2015 23:47 1.5391 07/05/2015 23:48 1.5392 07/05/2015 23:49 1.5389 07/05/2015 23:50 1.5388 07/05/2015 23:51 1.5387 07/05/2015 23:52 1.5387 07/05/2015 23:53 1.5386 07/05/2015 23:54 1.5384 07/05/2015 23:55 1.538 07/05/2015 23:56 1.5379 07/05/2015 23:57 1.5388 07/05/2015 23:58 1.5391 07/05/2015 23:59 1.539 08/05/2015 00:00 1.5388 08/05/2015 00:01 1.5381 08/05/2015 00:02 1.5375 08/05/2015 00:03 1.5375 08/05/2015 00:04 1.5375 08/05/2015 00:05 1.5382 08/05/2015 00:06 1.5381 08/05/2015 00:07 1.5378 08/05/2015 00:08 1.5381 08/05/2015 00:09 1.5389 08/05/2015 00:10 1.5396 08/05/2015 00:11 1.5398 08/05/2015 00:12 1.5393 08/05/2015 00:13 1.5392 08/05/2015 00:14 1.5391 08/05/2015 00:15 1.5391 08/05/2015 00:16 1.5393 08/05/2015 00:17 1.5395 08/05/2015 00:18 1.5391 08/05/2015 00:19 1.5394 08/05/2015 00:20 1.5394 08/05/2015 00:21 1.5396 08/05/2015 00:22 1.54 08/05/2015 00:23 1.5391 08/05/2015 00:24 1.5397 08/05/2015 00:25 1.5396 08/05/2015 00:26 1.5393 08/05/2015 00:27 1.5394 08/05/2015 00:28 1.5395 08/05/2015 00:29 1.5398 08/05/2015 00:30 1.5399 08/05/2015 00:31 1.5402 08/05/2015 00:32 1.5402 08/05/2015 00:33 1.5399 08/05/2015 00:34 1.5402 08/05/2015 00:35 1.5406 08/05/2015 00:36 1.5408 08/05/2015 00:37 1.5416 08/05/2015 00:38 1.5415 08/05/2015 00:39 1.5413 08/05/2015 00:40 1.541 08/05/2015 00:41 1.5409 08/05/2015 00:42 1.541 08/05/2015 00:43 1.5411 08/05/2015 00:44 1.5413 08/05/2015 00:45 1.5411 08/05/2015 00:46 1.5411 08/05/2015 00:47 1.5411 08/05/2015 00:48 1.5412 08/05/2015 00:49 1.5411 08/05/2015 00:50 1.541 08/05/2015 00:51 1.541 08/05/2015 00:52 1.5409 08/05/2015 00:53 1.5409 08/05/2015 00:54 1.5406 08/05/2015 00:55 1.5406 08/05/2015 00:56 1.5403 08/05/2015 00:57 1.5402 08/05/2015 00:58 1.5402 08/05/2015 00:59 1.5396 08/05/2015 01:00 1.5396 08/05/2015 01:01 1.5393 08/05/2015 01:02 1.5391 08/05/2015 01:03 1.539 08/05/2015 01:04 1.539 08/05/2015 01:05 1.5389 08/05/2015 01:06 1.5388 08/05/2015 01:07 1.5385 08/05/2015 01:08 1.5384 08/05/2015 01:09 1.5391 08/05/2015 01:10 1.5392 08/05/2015 01:11 1.5391 08/05/2015 01:12 1.539 08/05/2015 01:13 1.5391 08/05/2015 01:14 1.5392 08/05/2015 01:15 1.5394 08/05/2015 01:16 1.5398 08/05/2015 01:17 1.5397 08/05/2015 01:18 1.5401 08/05/2015 01:19 1.5401 08/05/2015 01:20 1.54 08/05/2015 01:21 1.5398 08/05/2015 01:22 1.5396 08/05/2015 01:23 1.5403 08/05/2015 01:24 1.5403 08/05/2015 01:25 1.54 08/05/2015 01:26 1.54 08/05/2015 01:27 1.5398 08/05/2015 01:28 1.5396 08/05/2015 01:29 1.5395 08/05/2015 01:30 1.5395 08/05/2015 01:31 1.5394 08/05/2015 01:32 1.5394 08/05/2015 01:33 1.5397 08/05/2015 01:34 1.5396 08/05/2015 01:35 1.54 08/05/2015 01:36 1.5402 08/05/2015 01:37 1.54 08/05/2015 01:38 1.5397 08/05/2015 01:39 1.5396 08/05/2015 01:40 1.5397 08/05/2015 01:41 1.5396 08/05/2015 01:42 1.5394 08/05/2015 01:43 1.5392 08/05/2015 01:44 1.5391 08/05/2015 01:45 1.5392 08/05/2015 01:46 1.5392 08/05/2015 01:47 1.5391 08/05/2015 01:48 1.5391 08/05/2015 01:49 1.5389 08/05/2015 01:50 1.5405 08/05/2015 01:51 1.5404 08/05/2015 01:52 1.5402 08/05/2015 01:53 1.54 08/05/2015 01:54 1.5396 08/05/2015 01:55 1.5397 08/05/2015 01:56 1.5397 08/05/2015 01:57 1.5397 08/05/2015 01:58 1.54 08/05/2015 01:59 1.5401 08/05/2015 02:00 1.5398 08/05/2015 02:01 1.5403 08/05/2015 02:02 1.5407 08/05/2015 02:03 1.5407 08/05/2015 02:04 1.5412 08/05/2015 02:05 1.5409 08/05/2015 02:06 1.5415 08/05/2015 02:07 1.541 08/05/2015 02:08 1.5409 08/05/2015 02:09 1.541 08/05/2015 02:10 1.5408 08/05/2015 02:11 1.5409 08/05/2015 02:12 1.541 08/05/2015 02:13 1.5409 08/05/2015 02:14 1.541 08/05/2015 02:15 1.5412 08/05/2015 02:16 1.541 08/05/2015 02:17 1.5409 08/05/2015 02:18 1.5413 08/05/2015 02:19 1.5414 08/05/2015 02:20 1.5412 08/05/2015 02:21 1.5412 08/05/2015 02:22 1.541 08/05/2015 02:23 1.5409 08/05/2015 02:24 1.5408 08/05/2015 02:25 1.5411 08/05/2015 02:26 1.541 08/05/2015 02:27 1.5409 08/05/2015 02:28 1.5409 08/05/2015 02:29 1.5409 08/05/2015 02:30 1.541 08/05/2015 02:31 1.5409 08/05/2015 02:32 1.541 08/05/2015 02:33 1.5407 08/05/2015 02:34 1.5405 08/05/2015 02:35 1.5408 08/05/2015 02:36 1.5407 08/05/2015 02:37 1.5411 08/05/2015 02:38 1.5413 08/05/2015 02:39 1.5417 08/05/2015 02:40 1.542 08/05/2015 02:41 1.5423 08/05/2015 02:42 1.5419 08/05/2015 02:43 1.5421 08/05/2015 02:44 1.5418 08/05/2015 02:45 1.5422 08/05/2015 02:46 1.5426 08/05/2015 02:47 1.5434 08/05/2015 02:48 1.5432 08/05/2015 02:49 1.5431 08/05/2015 02:50 1.5433 08/05/2015 02:51 1.5438 08/05/2015 02:52 1.5439 08/05/2015 02:53 1.5438 08/05/2015 02:54 1.5437 08/05/2015 02:55 1.5439 08/05/2015 02:56 1.5437 08/05/2015 02:57 1.5435 08/05/2015 02:58 1.5434 08/05/2015 02:59 1.544 08/05/2015 03:00 1.5438 08/05/2015 03:01 1.5435 08/05/2015 03:02 1.5434 08/05/2015 03:03 1.5432 08/05/2015 03:04 1.5432 08/05/2015 03:05 1.543 08/05/2015 03:06 1.5432 08/05/2015 03:07 1.5432 08/05/2015 03:08 1.5431 08/05/2015 03:09 1.5432 08/05/2015 03:10 1.5432 08/05/2015 03:11 1.5433 08/05/2015 03:12 1.5436 08/05/2015 03:13 1.5438 08/05/2015 03:14 1.5438 08/05/2015 03:15 1.5436 08/05/2015 03:16 1.5437 08/05/2015 03:17 1.5441 08/05/2015 03:18 1.5445 08/05/2015 03:19 1.5445

Investors are snapping up sterling on the hope of five more years of fiscal rectitude from the Conservatives, as well as a good deal of relief that Britain is now likely to avoid any prolonged period of coalition-making and political horse-trading.

General Election 2015: the key moments Telegraph front page 22.00 Exit poll puts the Conservatives ahead on 316 seats, with Labour on 239 seats, the Liberal Democrats on 10, the SNP on 58 and Ukip on two. First result declared 23.16 Labour win the first seat to declare in the 2015 General Election with an increased majority for Bridget Phillipson in Houghton and Sunderland South. First key seat 1.52 Conservatives comfortably hold Nuneaton – one of Labour’s key target seats – with 20,827 votes to Labour’s 15,945. Youngest MP since 1667 2.22 Labour shadow foreign secretary Douglas Alexander loses his Paisley and Renfrewshire South seat in the House of Commons to 20-year-old SNP candidate Mhairi Black Scottish bloodbath begins 2.55 Labour loses Gordon Brown’s former seat in Scotland, the Kirkcaldy and Cowdenbeath constituency, to the SNP. Murphy’s seat falls 3.10 Scottish Labour leader Jim Murphy loses his East Renfrewshire seat to the SNP’s Kirsten Oswald. Lib Dem collapse begins 4.11 Simon Hughes, a senior Liberal Democrat and MP of 32 years’ standing, loses in Bermondsey and Old Southwark to Labour by around 5,000 votes. Ukip’s sole win 4.18 Ukip wins its first seat in a General Election, with former Conservative MP Douglas Carswell seeing a much reduced majority compared to last year’s by-election. Vince Cable’s shock loss 4.37 Liberal Democrat Business Secretary Vince Cable loses his Twickenham seat to the Conservatives. Nick Clegg just holds on 4.51 Lib Dem leader Nick Clegg holds onto his Sheffield Hallam seat. He said he would be discussing his leadership with colleagues after a “cruel and punishing night for his party”. ‘Disappointing night’: Ed Miliband 5.25 Labour leader Ed Miliband, who retains his Doncaster North seat, says: “This has clearly been a very difficult and disappointing night for the Labour Party.” PM celebrates ‘positive campaign’ 5.46 Accepting victory in his Witney constituency, David Cameron says: “This is clearly a very strong night for the Conservative Party. We’ve had a positive response to a positive campaign.” Danny Alexander fails in Inverness 5.55 Former Liberal Democrat Chief Secretary to the Treasury Danny Alexander loses the Inverness, Nairn, Badenoch and Strathspey seat to the SNP’s Drew Hendry. ‘Gorgeous George’ falls in Bradford West 6:07 George Galloway, of the Respect Party, loses the Bradford West seat to Labour’s Naseem Shah, who won with nearly 20,000 votes. Ed Balls loses his seat 8.18 Ed Balls becomes the biggest casualty of the night, losing his Morley and Outwood constituency in Leeds to the Conservatives by 422 votes after a recount. “Any personal disappointment I have at this result is as nothing as compared to the sense of sorrow I have at the result Labour has achieved across the UK tonight, he said. Nigel Farage fails to win South Thanet 10.34 Nigel Farage, the Ukip leader, fails to win Thanet South from the Conservatives. He resigns soon afterwards, insisting he has “never felt happier”, with a “weight lifted off his shoulders” – but that he may return to contest leadership in September. Al Murray’s priceless reaction 10.38 Nick Clegg resigns 11.35 Nick Clegg resigns as leader of the Liberal Democrats. In a tearful speech, he says the Lib Dems had suffered a “catastrophic” defeat. “Clearly the results have been immeasurably more crushing and unkind than I could ever have feared. For that I must take responsibility,” he told his party. Emotional Nick Clegg calls defeat ‘crushing’ 11.39 Ed Miliband resigns 12.10 Ed Miliband resigns as Labour leader saying he takes “absolute and total responsibility” for the party’s defeat. “I’m so sorry for all those colleagues who lost their seats,” he said, in a dignified speech that included jokes about his own image and “the most unlikely cult of the 21st Century, Milifandom”. Early favourites to succeed him include Andy Burnham, Yvette Cooper and Chuka Umunna. David Cameron walks back into Number 10 12.13 David Cameron announces he will form a new government after visiting the Queen at Buckingham Palace following his resounding victory that delivered the Conservatives an outright majority for the first time since 1992. He promised voters “we are on the brink of something special in this country” – and that he will deliver his election pledge to hold an EU referendum.